It’s official like a referee with a whistle, the 2016 NFL season has kicked off. You did your due diligence before the draft: followed position battles, monitored injury reports, and picked up that sleeper in the 11th round that you’re sure is going to have a breakout season, but now it’s time to set your lineup. Which players should you start and who should you bench week 1? Lets start with quarterbacks:
Start’Em
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (Lions v. Colts)
Stafford wrapped up 2015 on a high note. Following the Lions’ Week 9 bye, Stafford completed 70 percent of his passes for 2,179 yards (7.4 YPA) and a 19:2 TD:INT ratio. It’s no coincidence his uptick in production happened when OC Jim Bob Cooter took over as the Lions’ play caller following the firing of Joe Lombardi. The retirement of Calvin Johnson will be felt, but Stafford is entering the prime of his career at age 28. Detroit offset the loss of Megatron by signing Marvin Jones to be their new deep threat. They also plan to use more no-huddle this season. Couple that with the fact that the Colts may be fielding the league’s least-talented defense in Week 1. Top CB Vontae Davis (ankle) is already ruled out, and slot CB Darius Butler (ankle) has also been sidelined at practice this week. Second-year DE Henry Anderson, the team’s best lineman, is still working his way back from ACL surgery and is doubtful at best. Fellow DE Kendall Langford is questionable after undergoing a knee scope in August. Starting S Clayton Geathers (foot) won’t be making the start after just being activated from PUP last weekend. A lack of any sort of pass rush and down multiple cover men in a game with a 51-point over-under, Stafford is a must start. The Colts were 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season, and this unit only got worse. This could end up being the best match up Stafford has all year.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (Bills v. Ravens)
#RevengeGame. After riding the pine as Joe Flacco’s backup for years in Baltimore, Tyrod Taylor finally gets a shot at his former team. He signed with the Bills last year, and has since developed into a quality starter and earned a six-year, $92 million contract with his play last season. The Ravens were middle of the pack against the pass last season, with their strength certainly being their run defense. Lardarius Webb has been moved from cornerback to free safety this year, with Eric Weddle signed to man strong safety. As someone who played with Weddle at the University of Utah, I love this off season pick up by the Ravens, but I don’t think it will be able to save the bills from being slashed for big plays by Taylor. Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith project to be the starting corners. Baltimore continues to rely on soon-to-be 34-year-old Terrell Suggs to trigger its pass rush. Opposite Suggs is OLB Elvis Dumervil, but Dumervil has already been ruled out for Week 1 with a foot injury. It’s a big hit to an already-vulnerable pass rush. The Bills are as healthy on offense as they’ll ever be, with LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins both full-go for Sunday. All four of Taylor’s three-touchdown passing games last season came when Watkins was healthy. Taylor also provides a strong rushing floor after averaging 40 rush yards per game in 2015. The upside are motivation are both there for Tyrod. If you chose to wait on picking up a quarterback until the later rounds and were fortunate enough to nab Tyrod Taylor, fire him up as a week 1 starter with both a high floor and an appetizing ceiling.
Derrick Carr, Oakland Raiders (Raiders v. Saints)
Last season, the theme in fantasy was to target the Saints’ defense, particularly their pass defense. A historically-bad unit, New Orleans was far-and-away dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Carr experienced a breakout sophomore season and appears poised to put the offense on his back in year three. He couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 spot. The Superdome will be loud, but “weather” conditions will be perfect for both pass offenses. Oakland-New Orleans has the highest over-under of the week at 51.5 points, and Vegas has it pegged as a close game with a one-point spread. The Saints allowed ten 300-yard passing games in 2015. After releasing veteran CBs Brandon Browner and Keenan Lewis in the offseason, the Saints are now expected to start second-year CFL transfer Delvin Breaux and 2015 third-rounder P.J. Williams at corner. Breaux had a strong rookie year, but Williams missed all of last season with a torn hammy. For what it’s worth, Saints DC Dennis Allen drafted Carr in Oakland, so the quarterback has practiced against this defensive scheme many times.
Sit ‘Em
Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (Chargers v. Chiefs)
Rivers turns 35 this season and is entering the twilight of his career, but he finally has a healthy stable of pass catchers after anything and everything went wrong last season. Keenan Allen is back from his lacerated kidney, and Antonio Gates is 100 percent after playing the entire second half of last season with a sprained MCL. Gates also missed the first four games of 2015 serving a suspension. A younger, faster Travis Benjamin was signed to replace retired Malcom Floyd. Still, this isn’t looking like a great week to go all in on Rivers, even with the Chiefs missing All-Pro OLB Justin Houston (knee) and losing starting CB Sean Smith. Former first-rounder Dee Ford and Steven Nelson will replace Houston and Smith, respectively. Those are huge losses, but the Chiefs were fifth in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA last season. In two matchups with Kansas City last year, Rivers completed 43-of-73 (58.9 percent) passes for 441 yards (6.04 YPA) and a 0:2 TD:INT ratio. However, it’s worth mentioning Kenan Allen, Rivers #1 target missed both games.
Andy Dalton, Cincinatti Bengals (Bengals v. Jets)
No Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones , or Mohamed Sanu. Replacing them are Tyler Kroft, Brandon LaFell, and rookie Tyler Boyd. Boyd was impressive in the preseason, but this pass-catching unit has taken a step back. Look for A.J. Green to get peppered with targets, but the defense can also key in on him more. Most Bengals beat writers are expecting Jeremy Hill to take on a more prominent offensive role after having a down 2015. Flying under the radar most of the summer, Hill is primed for a bounce back campaign. If he does bounce back, that could mean fewer pass attempts for Dalton. Darrelle Revis is no longer the feared cornerback he was just two seasons ago, but opposing quarterback will still be looking to see where he lines up on D. Marcus Williams, who led the team in interceptions, takes the place of Antonio Cromartie on the opposite side with Buster Skrine covering the slot. Gang Green’s defensive line remains as feared as any. The Jets were ninth in pass-defense DVOA last season and may have only gotten better with Cromartie out of the picture. After finishing as overall QB11 in average fantasy points per week last season, Dalton is probably more of a pick-your-spots streamer this year.
3rd and 1 Too Many 